last year: One top pair defenceman, depth forwards, sta

After missing the playoffs for three straight seasons, the Colorado Avalanche stormed to the Central Division crown in 2013-2014, their 112 points the second most in franchise history. Off-Season Game Plan looks at an Avalanche team that has promising young talent, but also serious warning signs heading into next season. First, the talent. Not many teams would prefer their forward core to the Avalanche group of Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Ryan OReilly -- Duchene, at 23, is the senior member, so they could be together for a long time. Defencemen Erik Johnson, 26, and Tyson Barrie, 22, as well as 26-year-old goaltender Semyon Varlamov are other core players that figure to be big parts of the team for years to come. Varlamov had an outstanding year in 2013-2014 and hes a finalist for the Vezina Trophy as a result, but goaltenders that vastly exceed past performance are likely to experience regression. Of the 11 goaltenders to post a save percentage of .920 or better in 2013, Tuukka Rask was the only one whose save percentage didnt go down and, of the other 10, the decline in save percentage went from .924 to .914, collectively. Knock .10 off a starting goaltenders save percentage and, facing 2013 shots like Varlamov did last season would mean an extra 20 goals against. Further reason for concern is that the Avalanche cant simply count on reducing the shots against. They ranked 27th in Fenwick Close, and face the prospect of losing their best puck possession forward, Paul Stastny, as a free agent. Maybe the young core will be able to take steps forward and improve those numbers, but that requires some projection and projection brings risk. Essentially, this is a cautionary post. There is all kinds of optimism around a talented young Avalanche squad that enjoyed a breakthrough season, but they are a team whose statistical profile ought to temper expectations and that makes this summers stakes significant. The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- Corsi, adjusted for zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates, hits, blocked shots, penalty differential and faceoffs. Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be around 70, stars will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at the top of the 2013-2014 regular season ratings at 87.12. Salary cap information all comes from the indispensable www.capgeek.com. CF% = Corsi percentage (ie. percentage of 5-on-5 shot attempts), via www.extraskater.com. GM/COACH Greg Sherman/Patrick Roy Returning Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Matt Duchene 79.15 71 23 47 70 49.3% $6.0M Gabriel Landeskog 76.06 81 26 39 65 48.8% $5.571M Nathan MacKinnon 74.96 82 24 39 63 46.9% $925K Alex Tanguay 71.04 16 4 7 11 47.8% $3.5M PA Parenteau 69.40 55 14 19 33 49.8% $4.0M John Mitchell 64.71 75 11 21 32 45.9% $1.8M Maxime Talbot 62.25 81 8 19 27 44.6% $1.75M Cody McLeod 58.32 71 5 8 13 42.0% $1.55M Patrick Bordeleau 55.57 82 6 5 11 42.0% $1.0M Marc-Andre Cliche 54.29 76 1 6 7 41.1% $700K Free Agent Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Paul Stastny 79.03 71 25 35 60 50.2% UFA $6.6M Ryan OReilly 75.09 80 28 36 64 48.4% RFA $5.0M Jamie McGinn 67.01 79 19 19 38 47.0% RFA $1.75M Brad Malone 55.34 32 3 2 5 40.7% UFA $735K Over the past two seasons, Matt Duchene has tallied 113 points in 118 games, which ranks 16th in the league, and while his points tilt towards assists rather than goals, Duchene isnt riding coat tails. In the past two years, Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton and Ryan Getzlaf are the only players with more primary assists per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Thats a player generating opportunities and he used his speed to generate the best penalty differential in the league. There werent a lot of forwards who played the kind of tough minutes that Gabriel Landeskog did, while posting strong relative possession stats, and his 3.02 shots on goal per game through his first three seasons ranks 11th since 2005-2006 (post Lockout I). Like Duchene, Landeskog set a career-high in points in 2013-2014, despite playing fewer minutes per game than the year before. The first overall pick last summer, Nathan MacKinnon was eased into the lineup, playing 13:33 per game in October, but gradually took on more responsibility and was up to 19:48 per game in April (20:34 per game in the playoffs). His 63-point rookie season was impressive, and MacKinnon really took off in the second half of the year, putting up 39 points (14 G, 25 A) in his last 42 games, before adding 10 points in seven playoff games. While he was the beneficiary of fortunate percentages, MacKinnon has game-breaking speed that gives him a chance to be one of the games premier offensive threats. A knee injury limited Alex Tanguay to just 16 games last season, yet the 34-year-old remains productive. Hes a ridiculously accurate shooter and has handles increasingly difficult ice time as his career reaches its twilight. If Tanguay is fully recovered for next season, he can be a valuable contributor. With a decline in ice time, and his name in trade rumours last season, its possible that PA Parenteau could be plying his trade elsewhere next season. He has 196 points (70 G, 126 A) in 264 games over the past four seasons, and his 0.74 points per game ranks 56th in the league (minimum 200 GP), so even if he isnt ideal for the Avalanche coaching staff, there should be some appreciation for Parenteaus ability to produce offence. Checking centre John Mitchell rode some fortunate percentages on his way to a career-high 32 points, playing a bigger role than might have been expected given the Avalanches centre talent, but injuries and Ryan OReilly and Nathan MacKinnon spending time on the wings gave Mitchell lots of time in the top nine. Acquired from the Philadelphia Flyers, Maxime Talbot was given a big role with the Avalanche, playing a career-high 16:10 per game (16:19 per game with Colorado) and while Talbot has, at times, taken on tough assignments (based on defensive zone starts and quality of competition) it hasnt been enough to justify his poor possession numbers over the past couple years. Hes a solid and respected veteran, but probably doesnt need the kind of ice time hes been getting. Cody McLeod has fought 90 times over the past seven seasons, but his production has been limited and he had the worst puck possession numbers of his career last season. Part of the reason for those poor puck possession numbers is that McLeod spends much of his time skating on the fourth line with Patrick Bordeleau and Marc-Andre Cliche and that trio doesnt have the talent to keep pace. Bordeleau is a 6-foot-6 winger who can play the intimidator, but when he and McLeod are on the ice, they pack more punch than they do possess pucks. Throughout his career, Marc-Andre Cliche has been a defensively-responsible forward with no offensive upside. After six AHL seasons in the Kings organization, he earned a spot with the Avalanche last year and while he may have a defensiev conscience, Cliche was one of six forwards to play more than 800 minutes in an NHL season and register one goal or less. A tremendous young two-way player, Ryan OReilly had a career-best offensive season after moving to the wing to play with Duchene. He plays a well-rounded game, which earned him a career-high 19:49 time on ice per game last season, and figures to be a priority for the Avalanche to sign as a restricted free agent, though that comes with some complications because the offer sheet he signed last season with Calgary paid him $6.5-million in 2013-2014. Working off that base means a pricey ticket going forward, depending on how OReilly is prepared to structure his deal. Jamie McGinn is a solid physical winger who can contribute offensively, and had a career-high 38 points last season. Hes a nice complementary piece for the Avs, and has handled playing with skilled linemates, making him a good fit in the top nine. The Avalanche can still put together a legitimate top nine even if they lose Paul Stastny to free agency, but Stastnys departure would be huge -- he plays hard minutes and that helped free up Duchene for a more offensive role. Returning Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Nick Holden 72.26 54 10 15 25 48.0% $600K Erik Johnson 70.76 80 9 30 39 47.3% $3.75M Jan Hejda 61.98 78 6 11 17 44.6% $3.25M Ryan Wilson 60.92 28 0 6 6 44.1% $2.25M Nate Guenin 58.45 68 1 8 9 44.5% $800K Free Agent Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Tyson Barrie 73.83 64 13 25 38 50.2% RFA $900K Andre Benoit 65.56 79 7 21 28 46.6% UFA $900K Cory Sarich 60.15 54 1 9 10 47.8% UFA $2.0M After five seasons in the AHL, during which he got into a grand total of seven NHL games, Nick Holden not only earned a regular spot on the Avalanche blueline, but he was playing more than 20 minutes per game by the time April rolled around. Surely, his finishing ability helped earn him playing time, but Holden also had adequate relative possession stats for a team that didnt have good puck control numbers. The first overall pick in 2006, Erik Johnson has gone through ups and downs to this point, but 2013-2014 may have been as good as any in his career, taking on the tough assignments and starting more shifts in the defensive zone on his way to tying a career high with 39 points. For all the questions on the Avalanche defence, Johnson appears to be one cornerstone around which they can build. Jan Hejda gets pressed into shutdown duty, facing the oppositions best forwards and starting shifts in the defensive zone, but hes among those defencemen who get destroyed under that workload. Hes a defensive defenceman, but one that tends to spend a lot of time in his own end and, no matter how good you are defensively, if you spend that much time in your own end, pucks tend to find the net. In 2010-2011, Ryan Wilson was playing nearly 20 minutes per game on the Avalanche defence, but hes been battling injuries and has fallen out of favour on the Colorado blueline, playing a career-low 14:40 per game last season while getting into only 28 games. Hes going into the final year of his contract and may not be more than a depth player for the Avs. As part of the Avalanche plan to turn over their blueline to AHLers, 31-year-old Nate Guenin got into 68 games, after playing 32 career NHL games previously. His possession stats do suggest that theres some reason that Guenin hadnt previously been an NHL regular. The Avalanche have been exceedingly patient with Tyson Barrie, perhaps too much so, but he finally secured his place in the lineup and contributed 35 points in his last 47 games last season. His playoff was cut short by a knee injury, suffered on a hit by Wild LW Matt Cooke, but Barrie is a dynamic puck mover who should be in line for a bigger role next season. It would be conceivable that the Avalanche could lose Stastny as a free agent, then turn around and spend their money on a free agent to bolster their blueline. They could try to keep Andre Benoit, and still seek out Tom Gilbert, Anton Stralman, Stephane Robidas or Mark Fayne as guys that could play in their top four. Returning Goaltenders Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit Semyon Varlamov 79.70 63 41 14 6 2.41 .927 $5.9M Reto Berra 58.24 31 9 18 3 3.07 .893 $1.45M Free Agent Goaltender Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Jean-Sebastien Giguere 68.70 22 11 6 1 2.62 .913 UFA $1.5M After posting a career-low .903 save percentage last season, Semyon Varlamov bounced back with a career-best .927 save percentage in a career season. Hes only 26-year-old, so there is reason to believe that Varlamov could be an above average goaltender going forward, but it would be more than a little surprising if he duplicated his career-best season in 2014-2015. That could be a legitimate issue if the Avalanche dont drastically improve their puck possession because a lot of their success last season was predicated on Varlamovs superior play. Looking ahead to next season, the Avalanche acquired Reto Berra from Calgary for a second-round pick and the Avs sure better have some scouting that they like on Berra, because he had an .893 save percentage in his first NHL season, ranking 37th out of 38 goaltenders to play at least 30 games. That was enough to earn a three-year contract extension. Top Prospects Player Pos. Team/League Stats Joey Hishon C Lake Erie (AHL) 10-14-24, -10, 50 GP Chris Bigras D Owen Sound (OHL) 4-22-26, -11, 55 GP Calvin Pickard G Lake Erie (AHL) 2.85 GAA, .906 SV%, 43 GP Duncan Siemens D Lake Erie (AHL) 1-3-4, -1, 46 GP Stefan Elliott D Lake Erie (AHL) 14-14-28, -16, 61 GP Sami Aittokallio G Lake Erie (AHL) 2.65 GAA, .909 SV%, 36 GP Troy Bourke C Prince George (WHL) 29-56-85, -4, 69 GP Colin Smith C Lake Erie (AHL) 8-26-34, -9, 76 GP Andrew Agozzino LW Lake Erie (AHL) 17-32-49, -12, 75 GP Mitchell Heard C Lake Erie (AHL) 4-8-12, +1, 63 GP Will Butcher D Denver (NCHC) 8-8-16, -3, 38 GP Its really a shame how injuries, including concussions, have side-tracked Joey Hishons career, because he was sizzling in his last year of junior. While 30 points in 59 AHL games since hardly assures that the 22-year-old is destined to make the NHL, the 17th pick in the 2010 Draft did get into three playoff games with minimal ice time. A smart young defenceman, Chris Bigras was Colorados second-round pick last summer and while he impressed in camp last season, the defensive blueliner could still play another year of junior before playing pro. A second-round pick in 2010, Calvin Pickards second pro season wasnt quite as strong as his first, but the 22-year-old remains a viable option for the future. The 11th overall pick in 2011, Duncan Siemens may not live up to his lofty draft status, but hes a tough defensive defenceman. After a mediocre rookie year, a strong sophomore season would put him in a better place as a prospect. Drafted in the second round in 2009, Stefan Elliott has 18 points with strong puck possession stats in 58 games with the Avalanche, but he hasnt been able to hold down a spot in Colorado. Drafted in the fourth round in 2010, Sami Aittokallio improved in his second pro season, and may eventually have a shot at the NHL, but he needs further development. Picked in the third round in 2012, Troy Bourke improved steadily throughout his junior career and, at the end of last season, chipped in seven points in 15 AHL games. With few premium forward prospects in the pipeline, Bourke has a chance to climb the ladder quickly. Taken in the seventh round in 2012, Colin Smith isnt big, but he was productive in junior and did enough in his first pro season, putting up 18 points in his last 25 games, to be encouraged that there is more to show. Undrafted second-year pro Andrew Agozzino has 101 points in two AHL campaigns. He may not have a high ceiling, but could have a chance to get called up if the Avalanche need forward depth. Mitchell Heard, a second-round pick in 2012, has 16 points and 239 penalty minutes in 86 AHL games. Hes tough, but will that be enough to make it to the next level? An undersized puck-moving defenceman, Will Butcher had a fine first collegiate season and the 2013 fifth-round pick should get more responsibility as he matures. Checking winger Garrett Meurs, big defenceman Mason Geertsen and Croatian winger Borna Rendulic are others to keep an eye on moving forward. Avalanche advanced stats and player usage chart from Extra Skater DRAFT 23rd - Roland McKeown, Conner Bleackley, Travis Sanheim. FREE AGENCY According to www.capgeek.com, the Avalanche have approximately $45.1M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 17 players. Check out my possible Panthers lineup for next season on Cap Geek here. Needs: One top pair defenceman, depth forwards. What I said the Avalanche needed last year: One top pair defenceman, depth forwards, starting goaltender They added: Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Tanguay, Marc-Andre Cliche, Nick Holden, Andre Benoit, Cory Sarich, Nate Guenin. TRADE MARKET PA Parenteau, Jamie McGinn, Ryan Wilson. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Terry Sawchuk Jersey . While coach Doc Rivers high-fived fans and pumped his fist at the crowd, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul quietly congratulated each other. Alex Delvecchio Jersey . As TSN reported Thursday, the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport is under intense pressure from the federal government to focus drug testing on athletes who compete in international events representing Canada. Since funding for the tests has been frozen and the cost of testing can eclipse $1,000 per test, university athletes in a number of sports are being tested less often. http://www.redwingshockeyauthentic.com/chris-chelios-jersey/. PAUL, Minn. Frans Nielsen Jersey . Watch all the action unfold live on TSN and TSN Mobile TV at 7:30pm et/4:30pm pt. You can also watch the game live with the debut of Wednesday Night Hockey on TSN.ca and chat throughout the game with TSN. Nicklas Lidstrom Jersey . Jacob Jacques, Andrew Ryan and Jonathan Drouin also scored for Halifax (37-18-3), who outshot the Islanders 40-26. Kevin Darveau stopped 25 shots. Bradley Kennedy had the lone goal for Charlottetown (18-33-5), which has nine losses in its last 10 games. GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The Phoenix Coyotes have won three in a row for the first time in 4 1/2 months, and theyve done it just in time for the stretch run to the playoffs. Radim Vrbata and Antoine Vermette scored first-period goals and the Phoenix Coyotes held on for a 2-1 win over the Florida Panthers on Thursday night. Coyotes goalie Mike Smith had a shutout until Chris Gomez scored with 4:08 to play. Smith had 22 saves. The game was no thing of beauty. "They all cant all be masterpieces," Phoenix coach Dave Tippett said. "We got up two goals and we won. Well leave it at that." The victory, coupled with Dallas loss to Philadelphia, put the Coyotes four points ahead of the Stars for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. Phoenix has won five of six and seven of nine. "Maybe desperation," Vrbata said when asked what was driving the recent success. "We know where we are in the standings and that we need every point we can get. We lost too many games before, games we should have won. " Smiths play has been central to the recent wins and he was strong again Thursday. "Before they got that goal, he was outstanding," Tippett said, "and then he got some after that." There werent many shots, Tippett said, but several were difficult saves. Robert Luongo had 20 saves for the Panthers. The Coyotes scored their first goal on a power play after Floridas Jimmy Hayes was sent to the penalty box for holding. Oliver Ekman-Larssons shot from directly in front of the net glanced off Martin Hanzals skate and was knocked into the net by Vrbata for his 20th goal of the season. Phoenix killed two penalties the rest of the period, then made it 2-0 when Vermette hit the puck innto a virtually empty net off a deflected shot by Mike Stone.dddddddddddd Stones shot bounced off Luongos midsection and right to Vermette. Luongo complained that the goal should have been disallowed because Mikkel Boedker had knocked the goalie to the ice, creating an opening for the goal, but the score stood and it was 2-0 after two. "I think they missed it," Florida coach Peter Horachek said. ".. It should have been an interference call. A lot of those things are going to happen and youre going to have to deal with them, everybody else does, but when you look back at it, it makes it 1-1." Luongo said hed have to look at the tape, but added "its tough to do my job when I end up in the corner." Tippett said Boedker was shoved in to the goalie. "Theyre guy pushed," Tippett said. "I thought it was the right call. Boedker wouldnt have been in there if he hadnt got pushed." "If he hadnt been shoved, he wouldnt have been in there," Tippett said. It was Vermettes team-leading 22nd goal. Hanzal and Ekman-Larsson got assists on Vrbatas goal, Stone and Boedker on the second. Gomezs goal, his first in 36 games, came on a wrist shot that fluttered past Smith. The three-game winning streak is Phoenixs longest since it won five in a row from Oct. 26 to Nov. 5. NOTES: Florida ranks last in the NHL in power-play goals and last in penalty kills. ... Entering the night, Smith had a 1.92 goals-against average and .936 save percentage in his previous 14 games. ... Phoenix swept the season series 2-0, winning at Florida 3-1 on March 11. ... Phoenix is home against Boston Saturday night. ... The Panthers were on the second stop of a four-game road trip. They are at Los Angeles on Saturday. ' ' '